An eye on the watch business with EveryWatch

Introduction

How is the watch business performing? That is a recurring topic among watch enthusiasts, business managers, and investors. Most Brands, whether listed or privately owned, unstoppably cross-check “sell in” and “sell out” data, their relative margin, and brand awareness.

The GFK-based model is, for example, standard in the industry. EveryWatch approached data from a different perspective, i.e., by analysing sales data as performed through leading auction houses globally.

Unlike any old-school business model, this one involves new and used, modern and vintage watches with a never-seen-before outlook on second-hand and vintage products. We usually refer to that as “street price,” thus providing a proper perspective of the most attractive brand and (or) product.

We still need to be allowed to access EveryWatch’s 2023 report, but comparing 2022 and 2021 offers exciting insights as we foresee the upcoming one. Rest assured, we will update this article as soon as the latest report is available, thus extending our analysis and confirming what we know.

Auction sales figures grew 37% year over year.

Let us turn to sales figures. The two starting slides show evident growth in auction sales year on year. With a “like for like” of 1,452 brands involved, the number of lots sold grew by nearly 40%, and so did value, totalling close to one billion euros in sales bottom line.

However, please note that 2021 was affected by a pandemic; since we do not have any data available beforehand, it is hard to make a comprehensive comparison and draw a conclusion. Here is why we are curious to find out what 2023 data holds.

Overall, auction sales continue to grow, and the press coverage from the leading auction houses confirms an equally growing interest in the business.

The watch market by brand’s trend

Below is a slide we advise you to examine closely since it shows how a brand appeals and how much a customer is willing to pay the base auction’s estimated price.

A niche, highly collectable brand like F.P.Journe holds the pole position. We know the brand is topping the waiting lists; the graph confirms that an F.P.Journe timepiece exceeds its average estimated value by 72%.

To get a comprehensive picture, we would split these data between modern and vintage, yet F.P.Journe is a case apart, given its relatively short brand life cycle. With that said, the brand’s performance is nothing short of extraordinary. F.P.Journe outperforms brands as powerful as Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe.

Rolex is the only global, mass-volume, premium brand on the podium. Going back to AP and PP, the product mix reveals even more. Independent brands hold the chart’s first four places, while the bottom line collects luxury groups’ premium brands. Breitling has joined the party; it is not any breaking news. The brand has undergone a thorough redesign and development; let us wait and see where the brand is heading.

The luxury watch market by auction houses

EveryWatch’s figures showcase that ten auction houses perform 93% of sales, with the first three performing 10x better than the others. Phillips Bacs & Russo, Christie’s, and Sotheby’s cover 70% of the market with a 600 million euro turnover. The fight for leadership is close.

There is a head-to-head fight, with Antiquorum holding the fourth with “just” 71 million euros turnover.

Phillips Bacs & Russo outperforms Christie’s in value/volume ratio and wins hands down by matching a similar turnover with many fewer lots and a higher average unit value.

Top sold watches

Breaking down the main models reveals the most sought-after—no news, good news: Rolex‘s dominance at auctions is no surprise.

The Daytona, especially, boasts a low unsold rate. Moving forward to vintage models, you will notice that such product references perform four times as much as contemporary ones.

The specific EveryWatch chart “breaks down” the aggregate data by model and category (modern and vintage) and is perhaps the most customer-oriented chart.

It still is Royal Oak Vs. Nautilus

Here is the comparison we all look for: If you compare modern and vintage models, a significant gap exists between a Royal Oak and a Nautilus.

The Royal Oak’s performance is much more volatile. Overall, Patek Philippe outperforms Audemars Piguet. Are you looking for complicated watches and precious models? Look no further than Patek Philippe and its perpetual calendar chronograph.

Patek’s World Time is in second place. Again, F.P. Journe’s performance is jaw-dropping, as is its average sales price, totalling a stunning €690,043. Should we refer to a Tourbillon Souverain as the contemporary counterpart of a vintage complicated Patek Philippe?

(Photo credit: EveryWatch)

Giovanni Di Biase @Horbiter®